As we close the books on 2025, the data confirms a transformative shift in the global spice trade: Vietnam has solidified its position as the undisputed “Spice King” of the Cinnamon market. For global importers and brokers, understanding the 2025 momentum is critical for navigating the supply chain complexities of 2026. At Prosi Group, we have analyzed the year-end figures to provide you with a strategic roadmap for the months ahead.
1. The Q4 Momentum: A Masterclass in Resilience
After a challenging third quarter, the market witnessed an extraordinary V-shaped recovery.
- The December Surge: Exports reached 11,366 tons in December, a sharp +20.07% increase from November. This marked the third consecutive month of growth, driven by peak holiday demand in the West and Lunar New Year restocking in Asia.
- A New Baseline: The year concluded with a total volume of 120,295 tons. To put that in perspective, 2025 outperformed 2024 by ~19% and 2023 by a staggering ~35%.
The Takeaway: Global reliance on Vietnamese Cassia is no longer seasonal; it is a structural preference over other origins like Indonesia or Sri Lanka.
2. Global Market Shift: The Rise of the “Trade Hubs”
While traditional markets remain strong, 2025 revealed a fascinating shift in how Cinnamon flows across the globe:
- The “Big Three” Backbone: India (37.6% share), the USA (11.3%), and Bangladesh (8.5%) remain the primary engines of demand. India alone absorbed over 45,000 tons, reclaiming its role as the dominant consumer and processor.
- The Hub Strategy: We saw explosive growth in transit hubs. Singapore surged by +364% and UAE by +108%. This indicates that international traders are increasingly using these hubs to manage logistics and financial hedging before redistributing to final destinations.
- The China Rebound: After a period of stagnation, demand from China skyrocketed by +147%, likely due to a domestic supply gap and a shift toward higher-quality Vietnamese imports.
3. The 2026 Landscape: Red Sea, EUDR, and Strategic Sourcing
As we transition into 2026, the “Golden Age” of Vietnamese Cinnamon faces a more complex regulatory and logistical environment:
- Logistics Alert: Continued tensions in the Red Sea mean longer transit times (10-14 days extra) and elevated ocean freight. Strategy: Buyers must prioritize earlier booking and higher safety stocks.
- The “Green” Filter: With EUDR (European Deforestation Regulation) and ESG mandates taking full effect, 2026 will be the year that separates professional exporters from casual traders. Compliance is no longer an option—it is a ticket to the market.
- Sourcing Trends: The “China + 1” strategy continues to favor Vietnam as global buyers seek stability outside traditional geopolitical zones.
4. Prosi Group: The Market Maker’s Perspective
In a year of record-breaking industry performance, Prosi Group has reached a milestone that redefines leadership:
- Unrivaled Scale: We ended 2025 as the #1 Exporter with 18,028 tons—holding a 15% total market share. Our volume is now 2.5 times larger than our nearest competitor.
- Operational Stability: While many large players saw a -90% dip in December volume due to supply chain fatigue, Prosi remained steady, exporting 1,335 tons (the highest in the market).
- Why it matters to you: Our scale allows us to act as a Market Maker. We offer price stability, guaranteed execution, and the most robust ESG-compliant supply chain in Vietnam.
Conclusion & 2026 Outlook
We forecast 2026 to grow at a more disciplined rate of 8-12%. Quality standards will tighten, and logistical costs will remain a variable. In this environment, the “Prosi Advantage” is your greatest hedge against uncertainty.
To our global partners: Thank you for trusting us through a record-breaking year. To those looking to secure a stable, high-volume supply for 2026—let’s start the conversation today.
